As the real estate market booms, Dubai aims to reduce the risk of debt.

With its global ambitions restored thanks to a quick economic recovery following COVID, Dubai is vying for talent and investment to fuel long-term growth.

The opulent Gulf city-state’s strategy is a revamp of a flashy economic model that for years prioritized real estate investment, tourism, and money inflows from abroad.

Real estate is once again thriving, aided by Russian demand amid the conflict in Ukraine and looser residency regulations. Analysts believe that stronger safeguards are in place this time to prevent a recurrence of the issues that brought down Dubai following the global credit crunch in 2008.

Dubai, home to the tallest building in the world and artificial islands, has ambitious new objectives: D33, a 10-year economic strategy, seeks to quadruple the size of the economy and elevate Dubai to one of the top four financial centers on the planet.

By 2040, it also plans to extend its public beaches from 21 kilometers to 105 km and revitalize the dusty Palm Jebel Ali island, which was abandoned after the 2008 financial crisis.

According to data by Knight Frank, with 219 home sales over $10 million in 2018, Dubai was the fourth busiest ultra-prime real estate market in the world. Tourist numbers are virtually back to levels of 2019.

In addition, the demand for ultra-high-end goods and the rise in real estate prices are bringing back regrets from earlier excesses.

Dubai was severely impacted by the global financial crisis in 2008, which resulted in a capital and population exodus, a collapse in real estate values, and highly leveraged flagship businesses known as government-related enterprises (GREs) that were having trouble paying off loans.

The oil-rich capital of the UAE, Abu Dhabi, eventually intervened with a $20 billion lifeline that is generally anticipated to be renewed a third time.

Nasser Al Shaikh, who led Dubai’s finance division until 2009, told Reuters that there is a danger that Dubai would become an unaffordable place to live and that new construction must ensure that there is a sufficient supply of mid-range housing to fulfill demand as the population rises.

“If developers in the private sector are unable to accomplish that, then the government and GREs may have a bigger role to do that while keeping prices reasonable,” Shaikh added, alluding to the top businesses that have driven Dubai’s explosive rise.

According to official figures, Dubai’s population increased to about 3.55 million in 2022, up 2.1% from 2021 and 4% since 2020; S&P estimates it to surpass 4 million by 2026.

The possibility of a significant new round of borrowing (by GRE developers) based on irrational expectations for real estate sales exists, but Justin Alexander, director at Khalij Economics and Gulf analyst at GlobalSource Partners, is optimistic that this risk will be reduced as a result of lessons learned from previous cycles.

In response to an inquiry for comment on how its strategy ensures that growth is sustainable and not speculative, the Dubai Media Office did not provide a response right away.

In order to acquire funds and expand its financial markets, Dubai established a Debt Management Office in 2022, paid off or restructured certain outstanding debt, and announced intentions to sell government holdings in 10 enterprises. Last year, it mentioned four of those.

Shaikh claimed that current financial officials had gained knowledge from the past mistakes of last 15yrs.

“Dubai has a strategy today, and the growth of capital markets is a key aspect of Dubai’s overall financial idea, not only to generate liquidity and pay off debt but also to deepen capital markets inside the financial sector.”

Worldwide Safe Haven

Dubai, the economic hub of the United Arab Emirates, has invested heavily in corporate and social reforms as well as industries like digital technology. Unlike the wealthy capital Abu Dhabi, less than 2% of GDP is derived from oil.

According to real estate research firm CBRE, villa prices increased by almost 15% in Q1, driving up average real estate prices by 12.8%. Sales of villas have topped 2014 peaks. Behind India and the UK, Russian buyers were third in Betterhomes’ list of the top 10 purchasers for May.

According to Richard Waind, group managing director at Betterhomes in Dubai, “Dubai has really established itself as a global safe haven,” adding that it is secure for families, politically, and economically.

“The market is no longer speculative. This market is based on sincere investment. That, in my opinion, is a significant departure from what we witnessed in 2008–2009 and perhaps the most recent peak in 2014.

According to S&P, Dubai’s gross general government debt will decrease from 78% of GDP in 2020 to 51% of GDP, or approximately $66 billion, by the end of 2023. However, due to large non-financial GRE liabilities, the overall public sector debt will remain elevated at approximately 100% of GDP.

Dubai’s five-year credit default swaps, which measure the price of insurance against a default, fell to a record-low 66 basis points on March 8 of this year, a significant decline from the 316 basis points it achieved at its peak during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.

According to the 2022 Financial Times ‘fDi Markets’ study released last month, Dubai garnered an estimated $12.8 billion in FDI capital last year; FDI into Saudi Arabia was roughly 30 billion riyals ($8 billion).

Dubai’s infrastructure, schools, and hospitals continue to be in high demand despite increased competition from Gulf neighbors.

Dubai is the most advantageous location for business travelers.

Thanks to its strategic position, pleasant environment, and liberal trade laws, Dubai has become a popular destination for businessmen from all over the world. The city can provide a special opportunity for ambitious people wishing to expand their enterprises.

The journal continued by saying that the prospective tax benefits and appealing labor laws are two of the most significant benefits for entrepreneurs who expand their firms in Dubai because the emirate offers a business-friendly tax environment.

The UAE declared that it would enact corporation taxes in 2022 to aid small enterprises. The UAE wants to keep its position as a top location for business and investment, thus the legal tax rate in the nation will be 9% on taxable income that exceeds Dhs375,000 ($102,000). This is one of the lowest and most competitive corporate tax rates in the world.

Entrepreneurs may be able to improve their revenues as a result and reinvest them to expand more quickly.
Dubai may be a desirable location for businesspeople looking to increase their financial earnings because there are no personal income taxes and no taxes on investments in stocks, real estate, or other financial assets.

Additionally, the government has created free zones for foreign investors, which offer specialized support services and streamlined procedures.

The ability to repatriate cash and profits is one among the many benefits offered by these free zones, along with 100% ownership, exemptions from import and export duties, and corporation and income tax exemptions.

The city draws in a talented labor force from a variety of backgrounds, which contributes to the development of a multicultural corporate climate that fosters cooperation and innovation. To help their firm expand more quickly, entrepreneurs can access a wide network of like-minded people, potential customers, investors, and mentors.

Entrepreneurs in the technology and e-commerce industries have a distinct advantage in Dubai as well as the chance to profit from underserved markets with lower levels of competition. Dubai keeps growing as a significant participant in the technology and e-commerce industries, even though other big global technology hubs may be full. Entrepreneurs can increase their market share and position themselves as industry leaders by being an early adopter and providing creative solutions.

The city embraces technology advancements and works to create a futuristic setting that encourages creativity across a range of industries.

Dubai-based businesses looking to grow can take advantage of this ecosystem and cutting-edge programs that promote innovation and creativity.

In the first half of 2023, orders for wind turbines increased globally by 12%.

According to Wood Mackenzie, the market for wind turbines outside of China and North America increased by 12% in the first half of 2023.

The energy consultant stated in a study on Thursday that the total amount of orders received during the period hit a record 69.5 gigawatts, with orders from outside China increasing by 47% from the same period a year earlier.

With two offshore contracts accounting for over half of the total, North American orders increased by more than four times to 7.7 gigawatts.

Although 44 gigawatts of orders were placed in the first half of this year in China, the world’s largest consumer of renewable energy, the report stated that demand was unchanged from the previous year.

Global orders totaled $25.3 billion in the second quarter and $40.5 billion in the first half, respectively.
Luke Lewandowski, vice president of global renewables research at Wood Mackenzie, said, “We’ve seen substantial interest outside of China this year, which is really encouraging.”

Although there are still issues with the supply chain, things have become better enough to encourage purchasing decisions.

Order activity has been aided by momentum from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) in the US, but volume will increase as clarity and market certainty improve.

The IRA, passed last year, promotes the purchase of electric vehicles and offers a number of tax benefits on renewable energy sources, such as wind, solar, and hydropower.

According to Goldman Sachs, it is anticipated to stimulate $3 trillion in investments in renewable energy technology.

In the first half of the year, offshore order intake increased by 26% to a record 12 gigawatts, according to Wood Mackenzie. It increased by 48 percent to 9.1 gigawatts in the second quarter.

As project developers awaited permits and clearances, “momentum had been growing in the offshore market for some time, and many deals had been subject to those conditions.”

According to the Global Wind Energy Council, 2022 was the “second-best” year for new capacity for the offshore wind industry globally, with 8.8 gigawatts of new renewable energy being connected to the grid globally.

According to a report released this week by the council, nearly half of the 380 gigawatts of new offshore wind capacity that will be built by 2032 will originate from the Asia-Pacific area.

Due to delays brought on by permitting and other regulatory concerns, the council revised its short-term projection downward for Europe and North America and stated that supply chain bottlenecks were a danger for all regions except China.

Slow permission clearances, increased costs for raw materials and shipping, and other issues are posing major hurdles to the European wind industry, particularly turbine manufacturers.

In the meanwhile, as nations attempt to solve future energy shortages, investment in clean energy is predicted to exceed $1.7 trillion this year, overtaking spending on fossil fuels, according to the International Energy Agency.

According to the Paris-based agency’s World Energy Investment report from April, global energy investments are expected to total $2.8 trillion in 2023, with more than 60% of that amount going toward sustainable technologies including renewable energy, electric vehicles, nuclear power, and heat pumps.

Coal, gas, and crude oil will make up the final 40% of spending.