However, industry experts say it is too early to determine the total impact on the almost $ 40 billion that expatriates send annually to the Emirates.
In the EAU, remittance exits have shown a decline trend over recent years. In 2023, external remittances totaled $ 38.5 billion, marking a continuous decrease from the peak of $ 52.88 billion in 2019. Specific data for the exits of remittances of the EAU in 2024 are not yet avializable.
Dubai money transfer providers are closely monitoring customer behavior while adapting to their services to the volatility of the potential currency, since Trump’s commercial policies threaten to change global commercial patterns and curren-rippe values in Keyan and Remis-Rechevivi-Rechevivi-Revivivivivivivivivivivivivivivivi-Revivi-Revivivivivivivi-Reeivi-Reeivi-Revivi-Revi-Reeivi-Reeivi-Reeivi-Reeivi-Revivi-Revivi-Repivie
Hasan Fardan at Fardan, CEO or Fardan Exchange, one of the main money transfer companies in the EAA, said Arab business That the first indicators suggest that some companies are adjusting their transfer time, although individual remittance patterns remain stable.
“We have observed a frontal load for corporate payments that occur before real tariffs enter into force. However, it is still too early to point out any significant impact,” he told Fardan. “To obtain a clearer understanding, we will need to observe the salary and cycles of the end of the month, since this will give a better image of whether people are frontal loading in the antipatification of possible FX shocks, or if they are holding.
At Fardan he expressed his confidence that the EAU economic force provides a damping against potential volatility.
“The Eau’s economy is strong and is expected to grow 5.1 percent in 2025,” he said. “This robust growth, backed by key sectors such as tourism, construction and financial services, provides confidence and stability for both residents and the senders of the region.”
The commitment of expatriate remittances of the EAU is still strong
Despite the possible winds against global policy changes, Fardan said that workers expatriates in the EAU maintain a strong commitment to support families in their countries of origin.
“While currency fluctuations can sometimes create challenges, EAU’s senders to countries such as India, Pakistan, the Philippines and Egypt are still committed to supporting their families at home,” he said. “Despite possible changes in the market, the desire to send money to their loved ones is unwavering.”
He pointed out that the fundamental purpose of remittances goes beyond market conditions.
“For millions, it is not just a transaction, it is a way of supporting families, paying education, covering medical costs and building futures at home,” he told Fardan. “That is why the industry approach must remain in providing safe, reliable and accessible services, regardless of market changes.”
Mohammad El Saadi, vice president of Carem Payem, based in Dubai, said that the connection between the EAU Dirham and the US dollar creates a direct channel through the United States’s commercial policies could affect the dynamics of remittances in the Emirates.
“Since the DEA is linked to the USD, any strength in dollars, as special, linked to the commercial policies of the United States, can influence the value of what is sent home,” said the Saadi.
He explained that Careem paid several users of several users in the EAU, including workers in the concert economy that regularly transfer money to the Indian country, Pakistan and the Philippines.
“A new round of US rates will probably lead to remarkable changes in remittances,” he told Arab business. “An American dollar Waker means that the senders must send more AED to maintain the same value at home, pushing them to look for better exchange rates and lower rates.”
The Saadi noticed some factors that could influence the behavior of remittances in changing economic conditions. “The appetite of reduced investors in unstable markets can also stop the remittances driven by investment, especially in runners where funds are sent for real estate or commercial purposes.”
He added that economic pressures could create conflicting trends.
“The increase in life costs could limit the number of people who can send or increase the need for support at home. The change directive will depend on how these opposite forces are balanced,” he said.
The Saadi also highlighted how the speed of its platforms provides an advantage to increase market volatility. “With Careem’s payment, transfers average only seven minutes and pass in seconds, giving users the flexibility of moving quickly when it matters more.”
Trump’s tariff rolling mountain
The tariffs, which Trump initially described as a “declaration of economic independence”, included a baseline duty of 10 percent over all additional imports and tariffs that range from 20 to 49 percent in countries that have signatures.
On Wednesday, Trump announced a hole on the tasks of meaning that had imposed on boxes of countries less than 24 hours after they entered into force. The measure occurred after the most intense episode of volatility of the financial market since the first days of the COVID-19 pandemic, which deleted billions of dollars from the stock markets.
Despite the partial reversal, Trump maintained the pressure on China, with hiking tariffs on Chinese imports to 125 percent from the level of 104 percent that was activated on Wednesday. The 10 percent general tax in almost all US imports will also remain in force, said the White House.
The United States Secretary of the United States, Scott Besent, said that the recoil had been the plan all the time to take countries to the negotiating table, he thought Trump indicated that the agitation of the market had made his thought.
Global implications for the remittance industry
The specialization of financial technology companies in remittances is preparing for greater monetary volatility and regulatory complexities that could finally increase costs for users.
From 2024, it is projected that global remittance flows to low and medium -sized countries reach approximately $ 685 billion, seismatic the total combined direct investment and official direct development assistance. This represents an increase of 2.3 percent compared to the previous year, which highlights the continuous importance of remittances as a vital source of external financing for developing nations.
At the regional level, remittance flows exhibit variable trends. For example, remittances to south Asia were expected to grow by 5 percent in 2024 to reach $ 198 billion, promoted by strong tickets to countries such as India and Pakistan. On the contrary, it was projected that remittance flows to Europe and Central Asia decreased by 1.2 percent that changes the same period, thinking that the specific data of 2024 are not yet available.
Dima Kats, CEO and founder of Clear Junction, warned that protectionist policies could lead to greater complexity in cross -border payment regulations.
“Political isolationism and protectionism make the world more fragmented. And when the world is political fragmented, it is fragmented in terms of regulations and compliance,” Kats said Arab business. “That’s where he begins to affect payments.”
Cross -border payment providers are already responding to short -term volatility caused by Trump’s announcement, but Kats warns about more significant long -term implications.
“Cross -border payments always have risks and demanding of a great collective effort. Now, with additional regulatory fragmentation, they are only putting risk,” he said. “Some suppliers will fail, others will go and some will invest a lot in new risk management strategies.”
Beyond the EAU, the potential impact of Trump’s tariffs on global remittance flows remains a concern for industry experts. The World Bank estimates that remittances to low and medium revenue countries totaled $ 669 billion in 2023, serving as a lifeguard critic for millions of families in developing nations.
For the Gulf, which houses millions of expatriate workers, remittance corridors represent significant financial flows. Saudi Arabia has been constantly classified among the main global remittance sources, while the EAU have maintained stable exits.
These figures underline the critical role of remittances in support for homes and economies, particularly in the development of regions, amid fluctuating global economic conditions.
Despite the thesis challenges, Kats expressed optimism about the capacity of the industry to adapt. “Our work in the business community is to build solutions in the context of political development,” he said. “Each crisis is an opportunity, and I like to think that the biggest the crisis is, the greater the opportunity.”
